Free Grade 3 Rules and Methods in Introducing Conditional Probability Common Errors: Visual Models Lesson Plans
Free Grade 3 lesson plans for Rules and Methods in Introducing Conditional Probability Common Errors: Visual Models: 12 real questions with a full answer key and worked solutions. Probability measures how likely something is, from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). P(event) = favourable outcomes ÷ total outcomes. For independent events, multiply.
Free
Higher
30 min
24
Learning objectives
Every objective is checkable, and each one maps to an activity and an assessment.
- RememberIdentify rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models
Identify rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models accurately in a familiar context.
Assessed by: Exit ticket of four short items
- UnderstandExplain rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models
Explain rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models accurately in a familiar context.
Assessed by: Exit ticket of four short items
- ApplyCalculate rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models
Calculate rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models accurately in a familiar context.
Assessed by: Exit ticket of four short items
- AnalyseCompare rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models
Compare rules and methods in introducing conditional probability common errors: visual models accurately in a familiar context.
Assessed by: Exit ticket of four short items
Prerequisites
Close these gaps first — each has its own free lesson, worksheet and quiz.
How Rules and Methods in Introducing Conditional Probability Common Errors: Visual Models works
Probability measures how likely something is, from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). P(event) = favourable outcomes ÷ total outcomes. For independent events, multiply.
12 practice questions
Easy to hard, 24 marks in total. Try them first, then open the answers.
- 1.A bag has 7 red, 4 blue and 3 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red).[1]
- 2.A bag has 5 red, 4 blue and 2 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red).[1]
- 3.A bag has 1 red, 8 blue and 2 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red).[1]
- 4.A bag has 4 red, 3 blue and 0 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red).[1]
- 5.A bag has 3 red, 7 blue and 4 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red) and P(not red).[2]
- 6.A bag has 1 red, 7 blue and 1 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red) and P(not red).[2]
- 7.A bag has 6 red, 7 blue and 1 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red) and P(not red).[2]
- 8.A bag has 7 red, 4 blue and 2 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red) and P(not red).[2]
- 9.A bag has 8 red and 7 blue counters. Two are picked with replacement. Find P(both red).[3]
- 10.A bag has 7 red and 3 blue counters. Two are picked with replacement. Find P(both red).[3]
- 11.A bag has 5 red and 7 blue counters. Two are picked with replacement. Find P(both red).[3]
- 12.A bag has 8 red and 5 blue counters. Two are picked with replacement. Find P(both red).[3]
Show answers and working
1. P(red) = 1/2
Total counters = 14. P(red) = 7/14 = 1/2.
2. P(red) = 5/11
Total counters = 11. P(red) = 5/11 = 5/11.
3. P(red) = 1/11
Total counters = 11. P(red) = 1/11 = 1/11.
4. P(red) = 4/7
Total counters = 7. P(red) = 4/7 = 4/7.
5. P(red) = 3/14, P(not red) = 11/14
Total counters = 14. P(red) = 3/14 = 3/14. P(not red) = 1 − 3/14 = 11/14.
6. P(red) = 1/9, P(not red) = 8/9
Total counters = 9. P(red) = 1/9 = 1/9. P(not red) = 1 − 1/9 = 8/9.
7. P(red) = 3/7, P(not red) = 4/7
Total counters = 14. P(red) = 6/14 = 3/7. P(not red) = 1 − 3/7 = 4/7.
8. P(red) = 7/13, P(not red) = 6/13
Total counters = 13. P(red) = 7/13 = 7/13. P(not red) = 1 − 7/13 = 6/13.
9. 64/225
P(red) = 8/15 each time. Independent, so multiply: 8/15 × 8/15 = 64/225.
10. 49/100
P(red) = 7/10 each time. Independent, so multiply: 7/10 × 7/10 = 49/100.
11. 25/144
P(red) = 5/12 each time. Independent, so multiply: 5/12 × 5/12 = 25/144.
12. 64/169
P(red) = 8/13 each time. Independent, so multiply: 8/13 × 8/13 = 64/169.
Worked examples
A bag has 4 red, 4 blue and 3 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red).
- Total counters = 11.
- P(red) = 4/11 = 4/11.
- Answer: P(red) = 4/11
A bag has 4 red, 3 blue and 0 green counters. One is picked at random. Find P(red) and P(not red).
- Total counters = 7.
- P(red) = 4/7 = 4/7.
- P(not red) = 1 − 4/7 = 3/7.
- Answer: P(red) = 4/7, P(not red) = 3/7
A bag has 2 red and 5 blue counters. Two are picked with replacement. Find P(both red).
- P(red) = 2/7 each time.
- Independent, so multiply: 2/7 × 2/7 = 4/49.
- Answer: 4/49
Interactive practice
Free, no account required — answer on screen or print it.
Common mistakes
What learners typically get wrong, and how to fix it.
Writes probability as a ratio like 3:5.
Correction: Use a fraction, decimal or percentage.
Adds probabilities for 'and' events.
Correction: 'And' means multiply when events are independent.
Teacher tips
- · Run real experiments with dice and compare to theory.
Parent tips
- · Talk about the chance of rain from the forecast.
Real-life applications
- · Weather forecasts, games, insurance.
Assessment objectives
How mastery is evidenced, and which standards it maps to.
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