Conditional Probability

• Identify conditional probability accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Identify conditional probability independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Explain conditional probability accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Explain conditional probability independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Explain the reasoning behind conditional probability using correct vocabulary.

  Activities — Talk-through with a partner · Write a model answer · AI Tutor Socratic session

  Assessment — Extended written response, levelled

• Calculate conditional probability accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Calculate conditional probability independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Compare conditional probability accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Compare conditional probability independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Explain the reasoning behind conditional probability using correct vocabulary.

  Activities — Talk-through with a partner · Write a model answer · AI Tutor Socratic session

  Assessment — Extended written response, levelled

• Venn DiagramsUnit
• Tree DiagramsUnit
• Basic ProbabilityStrand

• Sample Space Diagrams
• Tree Diagrams
• Venn Diagrams
• Basic Probability

Confident students rush conditional probability and skip the checking step.

Correction — Build in an estimate-before-solve routine so an unreasonable answer stands out.

Learners over-generalise a special case of conditional probability to every situation.

Correction — Present a deliberate non-example and ask why the rule fails.