Conditional Probability in Context

• Explain conditional probability in context accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Explain conditional probability in context independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Explain the reasoning behind conditional probability in context using correct vocabulary.

  Activities — Talk-through with a partner · Write a model answer · AI Tutor Socratic session

  Assessment — Extended written response, levelled

• Calculate conditional probability in context accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Calculate conditional probability in context independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Compare conditional probability in context accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Compare conditional probability in context independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Explain the reasoning behind conditional probability in context using correct vocabulary.

  Activities — Talk-through with a partner · Write a model answer · AI Tutor Socratic session

  Assessment — Extended written response, levelled

• Justify conditional probability in context accurately in a familiar context.

  Activities — Modelled example on the board · Paired talk task · Mini whiteboard check

  Assessment — Exit ticket of four short items

• Justify conditional probability in context independently in an unfamiliar context.

  Activities — Independent worksheet · Card sort · Concept-check quiz

  Assessment — Marked worksheet with a marking scheme

• Working with Conditional ProbabilityChapter
• Introducing Conditional ProbabilityChapter
• Venn DiagramsUnit

• Introducing Conditional Probability
• Working with Conditional Probability
• Tree Diagrams

Learners apply the correct method to conditional probability in context but ignore the context or units.

Correction — Require an answer sentence with units on every applied question.

Confident students rush conditional probability in context and skip the checking step.

Correction — Build in an estimate-before-solve routine so an unreasonable answer stands out.